China's C919 Large Commercial Jetliner (Photo : Getty Images)
Although China's C919, the country's first homemade large commercial aircraft, passed the final test to be ready for its maiden flight, some analysts believe it would still take time for China's C919 fleet to be exported and used in other countries, according to a Forbes article.
The report said that while it could have been easy for China to sell the C919 jets to domestic airlines or export them to clients in Asia or Africa, this did not happen.
Analysts said it would take about more than a decade to convince airline companies to buy the Chinese jetliner because most of them have been accustomed to using planes made by European and American aircraft manufacturers.
According to Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group Corp., a U.S.-based aerospace and defense market research firm, one of the problems is technology. He pointed out that state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) should also refrain from requiring suppliers to "surrender their intellectual property" if it needs new technology.
Aboulafia said that COMAC, which has a budget of $9.5 billion, has spent seven years to design the aircraft. But now it must spend billions more to match the quality and reliability of its foreign rivals.
"It isn't clear that COMAC will be able to make this massive investment in the next decade," Aboulafia noted.
In Nov. 2015, China delivered its first jetliner, the ARJ21, to a Chinese carrier, but its tests and certificates caused delays in its release, the report said.
Aboulafia said that COMAC may have been anticipating the same shortfall. However, the Teal Group said that the state-owned corporation is planning to sell 2,300 aircraft.
Analysts also pointed out that COMAC does not enjoy the same popularity as Boeing, and China is not also known as a country that manufactures planes.
"When it comes to designing and building such a big aircraft, especially one that has to meet international standards for safety, this is all pretty much uncharted territory for the Chinese," said Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
Bitzinger also noted that airlines from other countries have not placed an order for the C919.
"I think you will see a lot of hesitation on the part of foreign airlines when it comes to buying this aircraft," he added. "Airlines just feel more comfortable going with an established leader. They know their passengers will feel more secure."
Shukor Yusof, the founder of Malaysia-based aviation consultancy Endau Analytics, said that in terms of cost, efficiency or reliability, Boeing or Airbus is unmatched by rivals.
"Apart from selling the plane in mainland China and possibly to some emerging economies in Africa, I don't see it posing a threat to the major manufacturers any time in the near to mid-term," Yusof said. He said that the C919 may not see a large market for at least 10 or 20 years.
