The head of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading in Taiwan's presidential election held on Saturday. As of Wednesday, Tsai Ing-wen enjoys a substantial lead.
This development placed the Taiwan-China relationship at risk because the DPP favors Taipei becoming independent of Beijing. If she wins, Tsai could reverse the pro-China policy of the outgoing president, Ma Ying-jeou, leader of the Koumintang Party.
Ma has been criticized for being too partial towards China even if the policies made are done at Taiwan's expense, notes The Wall Street Journal. Although Tsai has promised not to provoke China, her electoral victory could, nevertheless, be a problem for Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Because of the possible impact of Tsai's victory on Washington's ties with Beijing, the U.S. has not commented on the early results of the election that would decide the fate of the tiny nation. Despite recognition by majority of the 196 nations that the mainland is the real China, Taiwan has retained political independence from Beijing since 1949, although the mainland government insists that Taiwan is part of the Asian giant.
The role of Taiwan would especially be vital in the light of China's conflict with its Asian neighbors over disputed territories in the South China Sea and these nations' reliance on the U.S. to tilt the balance of military power in the region after China took over some of the islands and built facilities.
Political observers forecast that if Tsai wins and takes office in May, China could impose economic sanctions on Taiwan if she does not acknowledge that the country is part of "One China." Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province and refers to it as Chinese Taipei in global event such as beauty pageants, notes Quartz.
In turn, in a pre-election survey, majority of Taiwanese respondents, or 41 percent, point to poor economic concern as the one issue that poses a major risk to the country's economic progress. It was followed by political battles (32 percent), economic inequality (12 percent), confused social values (11 percent) and government incompetence (9 percent). Cross-strait relations, which refers to China, came in only sixth with 8 percent.