The NBA Free Agency landscape will be heavily shaped by the decision of one player: Kevin Durant.
Durant is the domino on which all other decisions will be hinged on. When KD makes his decision, that's when all the other teams who restructured their contracts to have cap space for him will try to sign other players.
In a recent column from Andrew Sharp of SI.com, all of the teams in the running were given percentages based on the probability of Durant choosing them.
While the article notes that these are theories and that Kevin Durant himself may not be sure of where he would sign (since it's probably based on how they perform in the playoffs), Sharp does mention that he believes Durant's agents at Roc Nation seem have been in contact with the different teams in the running. There are many possibilities for this, and they could be exploring the prospects from a marketing standpoint.
The Oklahoma City Thunder were had the highest percentage, pegged at 35%. Earlier in the season, that would have been deemed as too low, but as the playoffs roll in, the doubts rise with every Oklahoma City loss.
The big surprise is that the Los Angeles Lakers, with their Conference worst 16-60 record, is at second place with a 20% chance. In contrast, the Golden State Warriors only had 9% and the Boston Celtics had 15% while the hometown Washington Wizards has a measly 1%.
The rationale for the Lakers is still based on history-similar to their reported pitches to free agents that failed to keep Dwight Howard or lure Carmelo Anthony and LaMarcus Aldridge among others.
"It's hard to say how this will work, but the foundation of the theory is actually pretty simple," Sharp says. "If there's ever an off-season move that seems cosmically unfair and impossible to explain without invoking the illuminati, the Lakers will do it. It happened with Worthy and Magic joining Kareem. It happened with Shaq's free agency. It happened when they drafted Kobe. It happened with the Pau trade. It happened with the Chris Paul trade, and when David Stern ruined that, they got Steve Nash and Dwight Howard instead. I'm just saying, it could easily happen with Kevin Durant this summer. Doubt the Lakers at your own risk."
Sharp admits, in the end that he would not be surprised if Durant ultimately went to the Lakers, but "please don't pretend it makes any sense whatsoever" implying that it would not be a basketball-based choice.
Even an ESPN report by Calvin Watkins mentioned Los Angeles-the city, not the Lakers team in particular.
"But speculation ranges from him playing close to home in Washington, D.C. or Los Angeles, where one Rockets official believes he'll reside if he leaves Oklahoma City and doesn't choose Houston."
The Lakers can look very different from their current status. It would start with the lottery if they lock up the top three pick. Also, it is believed that the Lakers' young core may not yet be living up to their full potential, given that they are allegedly tanking this season. Finally, there is a concession that Coach Byron Scott would be fired at season's end. The Lakers choice for a replacement will be critical.