The biggest NBA Free Agency guessing game is still about Kevin Durant and where he will play.
The safe bet is still the incumbent Oklahoma City Thunder because of familiarity and money (as OKC can offer more than any other team). Russell Westbrook is also considered a heavy factor, but that may have changed after their Western Conference Finals breakdown.
Yes, they were just one game away from the NBA Finals and that counts a lot, but the manner of losing three games in a row is too hard to ignore.
If he does decide to leave, the San Antonio Spurs could be the best bet for his services. Here are the reasons why:
The Home Factor
Yes, the home factor. That has been brandished by the Washington Wizards as their ace in recruiting Durant (at times, the only thing they have going for them). However, in a column by Chris Ryan at The Ringer, he highlighted this statement:
"If he doesn't go home - whether to D.C. or Texas, where he frankly seems to have more of an affinity - will anyone from either place really feel betrayed?"
The key phrase there "where he frankly seems to have more of an affinity" referring to Texas is ominous for the Wizards. He also mentioned that playing at his literal hometown-being a Maryland native, that would be Washington DC, is "bothersome."
Chance at a Championship As First Option
Durant wants to win a championship, that's fairly obvious. LeBron James won his first championship in 2012, nine years after being drafted in 2003. For Durant being in the Class of 2007, that should have been this year, but he failed.
Critics can rail at how James had to leave Cleveland to join stars in the Heat to win a title but the bottomline is that he's not going ringless. That may be in Durant's mind.
However, joining the Warriors may be a shameful "can't beat 'em, join 'em" sellout. To be fair with James, the Cavs were in a better place than the Heat when he left but joining the Heat would present a better situation in terms of winning a title.
The Spurs present a similar narrative that would seem more forgiving for KD. They beat the Spurs in the Western semifinals. But if KD switched sides, the Spurs would be better.
Also, by joining the Spurs, it would make the West a two-team battle between the Spurs and Warriors. The Thunder would not be a contender without Durant despite Westbrook. If he stayed in OKC, the Spurs and Warriors still loom.
Finally, with the Spurs, KD is still the first offensive option. Even Kawhi Leonard or LaMarcus Aldridge will take a step back. The Warriors will still be Steph Curry's team even if he joins them.
Small Market Charm
There are several talks about the bright lights of New York or the Hollywood feel of LA being a factor in the Durant sweepstakes. Nothing could be further from the truth as the NY Post admitted.
"The Spurs may lose Tim Duncan to retirement, making Durant a fit there. It is a small market, which Durant prefers, and San Antonio is an hour from Austin, where he attended the University of Texas."
No one knows how Durant will decide and these are mere speculative projections based on what we know about KD and the free agency landscape.