The NBA Free Agency will start with Kevin Durant as nearly the entire league holds their breath to await his decision.
While the foregone conclusion is that Durant would stay in OKC and sign a 2 year contract with a player option after the first year, as Marc Stein of ESPN reports.
The logic behind staying in OKC is competitiveness and familiarity, not to mention loyalty and tranquility of a small market (if such a thing still exists in the internet age). Staying with the team that drafted him, with a fellow top 5 player and a fanbase that sees him as their savior-that sounds a lot like Kevin Durant.
The concept behind the "1+1 contract" is financial as Stein illustrated. Durant finished his ninth season, but if he were a free agent after his 10 season, he would be eligible for a bigger percentage of the cap. Another reason is that the cap is expected to rise next season, the difference in a five year contract between signing long-term now and next year could reach $80 million.
Everything makes sense and all logic points to KD doing this, so the teams should stop courting and move on to different free agents. But they're not doing that, and with good reason.
As Bill Simmons points out in his column in The Ringer, there are some reasons why Durant would consider other options. One is his foot injury, that Simmons described.
"Durant also broke his foot two seasons ago, returned too quickly and underwent two more surgeries on that same foot," Simmons warned. He also pointed out that history is not so kind on foot injuries and a short term deal is risky.
That should not concern KD because he has the $300 million deal from Nike that he could fall back on.
This is what Simmons pointed out. Nike will not pay a superstar an amount that exceeds his salary as a basketball player without expecting any return. With that deal and his Roc Nation representation, Durant is no longer the small-town hero and his decision is not his alone to make. That's the reality of professional sports branding.
Simmons points out that after Durant won the MVP award that prompted Nike to offer the huge contract, KD got injured and Steph Curry brought the rise of the Golden State Warriors. It just so happens that Curry is also the scorned son of the Swoosh and is now carrying the flag for Nike's upstart rival, Under Armour.
Kevin Durant's signature sneaker has lagged behind other players' brands. Nike is actually losing the battle out West. Their top endorsers, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are on the same team. KD used to hold the fort along with Kobe Bryant, but now that he's retired, the West is now owned by Curry.
As Simmons mentioned in his article, this reason may be "too petty to mention" but it cannot be ignored. LeBron James' brand got a boost when he reinvented himself in Miami (despite all the publicized hate from The Decision) and even when he returned to Cleveland.
"There's something to be said for a fresh start - it's a selling point, a fresh narrative that everyone can pound into the ground," Simmons wrote. "Durant returning to OKC won't help Nike in its holy war against Under Armour unless he wins a title. But Durant building his own Eastern contender in Miami, Boston or Washington, or grabbing the torch from Kobe in Los Angeles for the Lakers? Now that would grab eyeballs and sell sneakers. And Nike has 300 million reasons to hope it happens."
It's possible that he would want to have an empire in the East, but that's where LeBron and Kyrie are. The world's most popular NBA team, the Lakers-doesn't have a Nike endorser. That's an intriguing situation.
Not to say that KD is a minion of Nike now and that he has no say in the decision. Far from it. But there is at least one (or 300 million) chance for the Lakers to land Durant.