The NBA media erupted with Russell Westbrook trade rumors as soon as Kevin Durant announced his decision to join the Golden State Warriors.
Trade scenarios for almost every popular team emerged. The more intriguing storylines from the Lakers (whom pundits believe has the best chance to re-sign him) Celtics (involved in every major trade rumor) and even the Minnesota Timberwolves (a young core that Westbrook could lead).
The Oklahoma City Thunder will hang tough and say that they plan to keep Westbrook and have prepared to make an extension offer. However, that will only put them on the spot, as Royce Young of ESPN deftly wrote.
"So the Thunder need a commitment from Westbrook. They really want it in the form of a renegotiated extension, which would serve as a declaration of responsibility to take over the burden of the franchise, as well as stabilizing it for the long-term," Young wrote.
This time, OKC can't assume anything. It will cost them leverage in a trade, but the alternative is to risk losing another superstar with nothing in return. Thus, if Westbrook refuses the extension, it's time to consider the trade options and the best way for the Thunder to do it is to work with Westbrook himself.
No team GM in his right mind would fleece their assets to trade for Westbrook without any assurance that he would re-sign with their team. This is why Westbrook does have control over his destiny. If he doesn't assure a team that he will stay, Oklahoma will get nothing.
Young also provided a clue as to where he would want to be traded. The easy assumption is that Westbrook is a person who enjoys the big city and thus, LA was a no-brainer. But Young, who covers the Thunder extensively, disputes that notion.
"It's an easy assumption to say Westbrook would relish taking over the alpha role of the team, but contrary to popular belief, that's not something he has ever wanted. He liked being Durant's running mate. It's why he put himself out there trying to sway Durant in Los Angeles. Westbrook had no issue deferring to Durant in crunch time. Westbrook cares only about winning, sometimes a little too much," Young wrote.
If he signs the extension offer, Westbrook takes the key to the Thunder franchise. He is now the face of the team, carrying all the broken hearts of Oklahoma. That is something he has to think about.
The key, though, is that Westbrook wants to win. It may not be joining LeBron in Cleveland in a grudge match with Durant and Golden State but he doesn't want to spend May and June at home watching the Warriors rampage through the playoffs. Westbrook wants to compete.
There are two teams that would give Westbrook the best chance to stay in the Finals hunt: The Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs.
The Celtics are in the Eastern Conference and if he joins them, only the Cleveland Cavaliers could stand in the way of an NBA Finals return. The Thunder can also relish the treasure trove of assets that the Celtics can offer. But it has to begin with Westbrook wanting to re-sign in Bean town which means the offer must be reasonable and keep the Celtics competitive.
The same applies for the San Antonio Spurs. In the initial report (read here), it was mentioned that the Thunder wanted Kawhi Leonard straight up. That's not likely to happen and it's assumed that Westbrook would want to play with Kawhi (which is why he will choose them).
In this situation, the Thunder will be hard-pressed to take a reasonable offer. If Westbrook chooses the Spurs, no other team would try to outbid them (because Westbrook could just walk away). A package of Kyle Anderson, Danny Green or future picks might be the only loot for the Thunder, but that's better than nothing.