Off-the-shelf commercial technologies pose a clear and present danger to the future military superiority of the United States, said the Pentagon in its latest analysis of the future military environment.
The "Joint Operating Environment 2035: The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World (JOE 2035)" issued by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said the impact of easily available commercial technologies will make violent non-state actors such as ISIS and future ISIS copycats more formidable foes.
"Transnational criminal organizations, terrorist groups, and other irregular threats are likely to exploit the rapid spread of advanced technologies to design, resource, and execute complex attacks and combine many complex attacks into larger, more sustained campaigns," said the report.
This scenario will likely be abetted by a breakdown of global norms and mass migrations from conflict zones in the Middle East to Europe and elsewhere.
JOE 2035 seeks to understand the new meaning of warfare and how warfare will evolve over the next 20 years. This new understanding should assist the U.S. Joint Force adapt to and prepare for these changes.
JOE 2035 foresees a future security environment highlighted by intense political violence, regional warfare and ongoing competition with a significant military dimension short of traditional armed conflict.
The report identified six major geopolitical challenges the U.S. armed forces will face 20 years hence:
* The continuation of violent ideological competition where irreconcilable ideas are promoted through violence.
* Antagonistic geopolitical balancing in which increasingly ambitious adversaries such as China and Russia maximize their own influence while actively limiting U.S. influence.
* Adversaries that can better threaten U.S. territory and sovereignty while disregarding the freedom, safety and autonomy of its citizens.
* Adversaries such as China capable of disrupting or controlling the "global commons," which are the Earth's unowned natural resources such as the oceans, the atmosphere and space.
*A contest for cyberspace where the struggle will focus on credibly protect sovereignty in cyberspace.
*Shattered and reordered regions in states wracked by civil disorder, environmental stressors and deliberate external interference.
JOE 2035 describes a future security environment defined by two major challenges. The first, called contested norms, highlights the military problems caused by adversaries such as China disputing through force the rules, agreements, customs, and standards that define today's international order.
The second, persistent disorder, is focused on adversaries exploiting the inability of societies and states to provide functioning, stable, or legitimate governance.