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The Carrot, the Stick, and How Both Affect China-North Korea Ties

| Feb 22, 2017 07:04 AM EST

Recently, China has imposed on North Korea a total ban on coal imports, a major export product of the Hermit Kingdom.

China is showing signs of frustration with North Korea’s incessant efforts to undermine peaceful solutions to the nuclear weapons conundrum, according to a report by Reuters.

In addition to increased pressure from Washington to become sterner with Pyongyang, a Chinese expert on North Korea has indicated that China is also starting to view the issue differently.

Recently, China has imposed on North Korea a total ban on coal imports, a major export product of the Hermit Kingdom.

However, experts and analysts are reluctant on China’s long-term commitment to a firm position against North Korea’s belligerent behavior.

"Despite participating in U.N. sanctions, Chinese society's friendship to the North remains unchanged. Chinese sanctions only target at its nuclear weapon program, and we are firmly opposed to Seoul's political fantasy against Pyongyang," according to an editorial by the Global Times, a widely read state-run tabloid.

Consequence of economic pressure

Nonetheless, the impact of the suspension of coal imports would mean bleak economic prospects, thus forcing Pyongyang to a corner and possibly submit to concessions during the resumption of negotiations.

In 2016, China imported approximately $1.89 billion coal from North Korea. In total, China imported $2.5 billion worth of goods from North Korea in the same year.

 "This is a very severe measure that has broken with the previous convention, it shows just how much China has been antagonized by [Pyongyang's] recent missile tests," said Jin Qiangyi, Director of the Centre for North and South Korea Studies at Yanbian University, who specializes in China's relationship with North Korea.

For Jin, the whole situation is risky but the latest economic pressure from Beijing may push North Korea to at least consider the option of re-negotiating in nuclear arms talks.

Moreover, experts recognize that China must not risk a confrontation with North Korea through excessive pressure. There are also fears in China of a sudden collapse of Kim Jong Un’s regime that could necessitate chaos and potential refugee problems, as China shares a border with North Korea.

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