Despite the strong demand that led to the eventual greenlight for the Deadpool movie, critics believe it will fail miserably at the box office.
One of these critics is The Film Guy from YouTube with a video entitled "The Deadpool movie will fail?" and it does not get any more subtle.
His main thesis is that the Deadpool movie has so many parallels with "Kick Ass" which was a very mild hit. In fact, it only turned a profit because of the low budget-something Deadpool does not have.
If the audience for "Kick Ass" has gone dry (the sequel was underwhelming and there probably won't be any repeats), then Deadpool will likely suffer the same fate.
A tired audience may be the least of Deadpool's problems, as What Culture provided an entire list of red flags that may lead to the movie being a bomb.
Some of the items enumerated are its playdate which WC called the "graveyard" season. A rundown of movies shown in the first two months of the year was used to argue the point. While this is not a sure death sentence in itself, it's also not blockbuster city.
Two major factors are Director Tim Miller who will actually make his feature film debut. This can actually work both ways as there would also not be any biases against him.
But there's strong bias for the other major factor: Ryan Reynolds. WC called him "box office poison" and while it's hard to believe since he's considered an A-lister, his record in the last 5 years is rather disappointing. Seven of his 11 films in that period were considered bombs or disappointments.
Other factors: the weak link to X-Men, which seems to indicate that Deadpool is not exactly in the long-term Fox plans. Also, similar to what The Film Guy said, it might be "too crude for its own good."