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Still too Many Men in China as Sex Ratio at Birth Remains Unfavorable

| Oct 14, 2016 03:23 AM EDT

Young Chinese soldiers in training.

Yes, it's raining men in China but no one's shouting "Hallelujah!" because these men will have the heck of a time finding Chinese women to marry.

A new survey confirms China has the world's most imbalanced "sex ratio at birth" or the number of boys born for every 100 girls. The ratio stood at 113.5 in 2015, meaning there are 113 men for every 100 women. Demographers believe the normal ratio is about 107.

Unfortunately, China's imbalance of boys to girls will continue for a "considerable time," said Wang Peian, deputy director of the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

The imbalance peaked in 2004 with 121.2 boys born to every 100 girls while some provinces even recorded ratios of 130.

The good news, however, is that 2015 was China's seventh consecutive year where the sex ratio at birth has fallen. The ratio stood at 119.45 in 2009 and 113.5 last year.

Demographers estimate that from 20 to 34 million more boys than girls were born over the past three decades. The unfavorable sex ratio has led to a growing number of single men failing to find wives.

"The country has made some progress in controlling the high sex ratio at birth, but, in the view of the population development pattern, it will be more challenging to continue after the sex ratio at birth dropped to a certain extent," said Wang.

"The problem will remain a major lurking peril for population development and social stability," Wang said.

Like many demographers, Wang believes China's disastrous one child policy implemented in the 1970 is partly to blame for the huge demographic challenges facing China today. Among this is a population where the numbers of the elderly are rising too fast.

He noted the sex ratio at birth only began to soar in 1982 (from 108.4) when China started to strictly implement the one child policy.

Despite this, Wang said China's traditional preference for boys is the fundamental reason for the phenomenon. The preference for boys over girls encouraged selective abortions that pushed the ratio of boys to above 115 since 1994.

The trend until 2020 will remain unfavorable and there will likely be 118.9 boys born for every 100 girls by 2020, according to a Chinese statistics bureau.

This means an extra 9.5 million men aged from 20 to 29; 12.6 million boys under 9 years-old and millions more in the ages in between.

At least 10 percent of China's young men won't be able to find a wife after 2020 with the greatest imbalance among the youngest generation, meaning younger men will find it harder to find a partner.

Demographers said this phenomenon might lead to the formation of a new social group of single men, most of whom will be poor and likely remain single for the rest of their lives.

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