Attrition will decide the bloody battle for Mosul in favor of the Iraqi Ground Forces of the Iraqi Army and its allies despite the army and its coalition forces losing more men than ISIS since their offensive to retake this city began last Oct. 16
Up until the first week of December, the United Nations estimated Iraqi Army combat deaths alone at close to 2,000 men since the offensive was launched. The UN gave no estimates of combat deaths among coalition allies such as the Kurdish Peshmerga. It also gave no figure for deaths among Iraqi paramilitary units or Sunni fighters.
Combat death among Iraqi Army allies will push total coalition deaths to above those suffered by ISIS, or ISIL, as the Americans are wont to call them.
While ISIS deaths are difficult to estimate with any certainty, the Iraq Army that has led the assault into Mosul estimates killing over 2,000 ISIS fighters. Not included in this toll are fighters killed by U.S. and coalition airstrikes that pummel ISIS almost everyday.
While the Iraqi Army coalition has lost more men than ISIS, there is no doubt the Iraqis will ultimately win the battle because of their sheer numerical superiority.
At the start of the Battle for Mosul, U.S. and Iraqi Army intelligence placed the total number of ISIS defenders at over 5,000 men.
There are over 120,000 men of the Iraqi Security Forces and their allies surrounding Mosul. At least 25,000 are involved on the attack on this city.
Of this total, 54,000 belong the Iraqi Security Forces; 40,000 to the Kurdish Peshmerga; 14,000 to paramilitary units; 9,000 to various Sunni fighting groups and 5,000 from other minorities including Christians, Turkmen and Yazidis.
A loss ratio of one ISIS fighter killed to one anti-ISIS fighter killed will mean the ISIS forces defending Mosul will be almost completely wiped out by early 2017.