China Won't Become the World’s Largest Economy Until 2028

The economic consultancy CEBR's World Economic League Table (WELT) states that China's GDP will overtake the U.S. in 2028 to become the world's largest economy - much later than some analysts have suggested.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), an economic consultancy firm based in London, says China's rise to the world's number one economy will be much slower than previously thought, due to both strength in the U.S. economy and the relative slowdown in China's domestic economy.

"China's spectacular economic development has continued and although the increasing maturity of its economy and relatively unfavorable demographics mean that growth will inevitably slow, we still expect China to overtake the U.S. to become the world's largest economy in 2028 for the first time since 1890...This is later than some analysts have suggested," according to CEBR analysts.

There will be a growth in China's gross domestic product to $33,513 billion in 2028, up from $8,939 billion in 2013, stated CEBR.

This year's report is updated to take account of the likely surplus of energy and falling oil and gas prices in the 2020s, weaker commodity prices that had previously been expected and the depreciation of some emerging market currencies this year.

The downward revision of energy prices means that the Russian outlook is much less favorable than had once appeared. As a result, although Russia is expected to reach 6th place in 2018, from 2023 it will fall back to 8th place.