Liaoning launches a J-15. (Photo : US Navy)
It might take at least two more decades for the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to "break-out" of its "prison" in the South China Sea and conduct naval patrols with impunity anywhere in the world.
By this time, however, PLAN will not only have to contend with a far larger United States Navy, the world's most powerful, but also a resurgent Royal Navy that will have two new supercarriers and their formidable air groups on the high seas, and the Indian Navy, which will see its first nuclear powered supercarrier (the INS Vishal) take to the seas.
The British have announced the Royal Navy led by its newest supercarrier, the HMS Queen Elizabeth II, will begin patrolling the South China Sea in 2021.
The heavily hyped sorties of the CNS Liaoning (CV-16), PLAN's only aircraft carrier, into the South China Sea and Western Pacific were mostly show the flag empty gestures because Liaoning is classified only as a training ship by the PLAN and not a front line combatant.
The Liaoning can only carry 24 Shenyang J-15 multirole fighters; 6 Changhe Z-18F anti-submarine warfare helicopters; 4 Changhe Z-18J airborne early warning helicopters and 2 Harbin Z-9C rescue helicopters.
Today, China is only able to project power within the South China Sea and nearby waters. This, because of its strategy of not fighting future battles outside the range of its land-based anti-ship missiles deployed on the mainland as part of its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy.
China recently said it has no intention of having a showdown with U.S. aircraft carriers in deep sea waters but "will deal a heavy blow to those who act wantonly in its near sea areas."
Military analysts believe China will dare a deep water showdown with the United States only in the 2040s when it might have at least 10 100,000 ton nuclear carriers with catapult launchers.
Apart from CNS Liaoning, China has two other carriers: the CNS Shandong (CV-17), which is expected to join the PLAN in 2020 and a third and as yet unnamed carrier that will launch aircraft the same way the U.S. Navy does using steam catapults.
